A Prediction Market Participant Profited $Nearly Half a Million on Wagers on Maduro's Downfall.
A trader profited close to $500,000 from wagers on the downfall of the Venezuelan leader just before it was made public, sparking debate about whether someone profited from confidential information of the US operation.
Changing Odds in Forecasts
Bets placed on the crypto-platform, an online prediction market, that the Venezuelan president would be no longer in control by the month's conclusion increased in the period preceding Donald Trump declared on January 3rd that Maduro had been taken into custody.
One account, which joined the platform recently and took four positions, all on Venezuela, earned over $436,000 from a modest bet of $32,537.
It remains unclear. The anonymous account had only a blockchain identifier for identification.
Odds Fluctuate Before Announcement
Trading information shows that traders put the odds of Maduro's exit at just 6.5% in the late afternoon of the prior Friday.
However the odds had jumped to 11% by late Friday night and skyrocketed in the first hours of the next day, suggesting a sudden change in betting activity right before the social media post was made.
"This specific wager has all the characteristics of a trade based on non-public details," said Dennis Kelleher.
A small number of other traders also earned large payouts from predicting the capture.
Legal Questions Grows
Some lawmakers are growing concerned.
A bill presented on recently would prevent public officials from making trades on forecasting platforms if they have "material nonpublic information" related to a bet.
Industry Context
Prediction markets have become increasingly popular in recent years, with traders able to wager on everything from sports outcomes to political events.
The industry were examined under the previous administration. However it has received a warmer welcome during the current presidency.
Trading on insider information is illegal in the stock market, but there are less oversight in the event betting space.
An official representative for a competing service said their site "has clear rules against such activities of any form."